No future for a two-state solution in Cyprus: outgoing UN Envoy in Cyprus Stewart

As he prepares to end his four-year term in Cyprus, UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative Colin Stewart has firmly ruled out the possibility of northern Cyprus ever being recognised as an independent state by the international community.

“There’s no scenario where the north becomes an independent country recognised internationally – that’s simply not going to happen,” Stewart told Phileleftheros, Politis, and in-cyprus. Instead, he warned, the north is slowly becoming a de facto Turkish territory, a prospect he describes as the Greek Cypriots' greatest fear – effectively placing a Turkish border across the island.

Despite the absence of progress during his tenure, Stewart remains cautiously optimistic. He believes a solution to the Cyprus problem is still possible, but laments the growing mistrust and entrenched narratives on both sides. “If the Cyprus problem is a big mountain to climb, we’re not even at the foothills yet – we’re still miles away,” he said.

Stewart observed that each side holds tightly to its own version of history, with little recognition of the other's grievances. “They don’t realise how one-sided their narrative is,” he said, adding that even routine UN reports are accused of bias by both sides, who are “so convinced they’re right.”

While he questioned the real impact of confidence-building measures, Stewart acknowledged their role in keeping dialogue alive. “Without meetings, there’s nothing,” he noted.

The UN, he stressed, remains committed to Cyprus, but its role is limited without real political will. “If leaders aren’t willing to sit down and solve the problem, the UN can do little. That’s why we’ve been here 61 years.”

On UNFICYP’s continued presence, Stewart rejected suggestions that it perpetuates the status quo, emphasizing the mission’s daily role in conflict prevention. “A UN withdrawal would only raise fears that one side might exploit the vacuum, risking direct conflict,” he warned.

While Turkish Cypriot leaders and Ankara occasionally advocate for a two-state solution, Stewart said few truly believe it’s viable. Instead, he sees two paths: a negotiated settlement or continued absorption of the north into Turkey. “They’re already economically and politically dependent. If nothing changes, this will become permanent.”

He believes the window for reunification is still open. “Many in the north have told me they’re not ready to kill off the prospect of a settlement,” Stewart said, pointing to the repeated stalling of development in Varosha as a sign. “They know that if they start building there, it means the end of talks – and they’re not ready for that yet.”

Still, he warns time is running out. “If we want to avoid permanent division, we must act now.”