Experts warn of rice and tomato shortages in six months as food inflation worsens

Nigeria: Nigerians could see another round of food price increases within the next three to six months as industry experts warn that declining farm output, worsening insecurity, rising transportation costs and weak storage infrastructure are tightening the country's food supply chain.

The warning comes amid fluctuating market prices for staples such as rice, tomatoes, onions and peppers, with stakeholders cautioning that supply shortages could intensify before the end of the year if urgent interventions are not implemented.

Rice Production Forecast to Decline

President of the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA), Alexander Isong, said Nigeria's agricultural sector is facing mounting challenges that could significantly affect food availability in the months ahead.

He projected that national rice production would decline by six percent to approximately 8.3 million tonnes, while the total land cultivated for rice is expected to fall by seven percent to around 4.2 million hectares.

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also points to a five percent year-on-year decline in Nigeria's rice production, reinforcing concerns over shrinking domestic output.

Isong added that tomato supplies are likely to remain under pressure until the late harvest period in October, while reduced planting activities recorded in 2025 could also limit the availability of maize, sorghum and millet.

Market Prices Already Under Pressure

Food traders say current prices reflect increasing supply constraints, with several staple commodities recording sustained volatility across major markets.

A 50-kilogram bag of locally produced rice currently sells for between ₦85,000 and ₦105,000, while imported parboiled rice ranges from ₦110,000 to ₦135,000.

Fresh tomatoes are selling for ₦45,000 to ₦75,000 per large basket, depending on location. Onion prices range between ₦70,000 and ₦95,000 per bag, while fresh peppers cost between ₦60,000 and ₦90,000.

Traders warn that prices could rise further if production and distribution challenges persist over the coming weeks.

Logistics Costs Continue to Rise

According to Isong, transportation has become one of the biggest cost drivers in Nigeria's food supply chain.

He said moving one tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos now costs around ₦70,000, compared with roughly ₦45,000 previously. On some routes, transportation costs have doubled or even tripled as higher fuel and energy prices continue to affect logistics.

The increased cost of moving produce, combined with dwindling supplies from producing areas, has already contributed to higher prices for onions and peppers in major urban markets.

Insecurity and Storage Losses Deepen Crisis

Beyond transportation, insecurity across key agricultural regions—particularly in northern Nigeria—continues to reduce food production by preventing many farmers from accessing their farmlands.

Isong also highlighted Nigeria's longstanding post-harvest challenges, noting that between 30 and 50 percent of perishable agricultural produce is lost before reaching consumers due to inadequate cold storage facilities, weak logistics networks and poor handling practices.

Despite substantial domestic food production, he argued that inefficient storage and distribution systems prevent much of the harvest from reaching markets.

Nigeria is also expected to remain heavily dependent on imported wheat, with imports projected to reach about 7.2 million tonnes, underscoring the country's continued reliance on external supplies for key food commodities.

Call for Urgent Intervention

To reduce the risk of a broader food crisis, Isong urged the Federal Government, state governments, private investors and development partners to coordinate immediate interventions across the agricultural value chain.

He recommended expanding farmers' access to improved seeds, fertilisers, irrigation facilities and affordable financing ahead of the 2026/2027 planting season.

He also called for stronger security around farming communities, rehabilitation of rural roads, greater use of rail transport for agricultural produce, increased investment in aggregation centres, cold-chain infrastructure and food processing facilities, as well as closer collaboration among governments, farmer cooperatives, logistics operators and commodity associations.

Outlook

If current production and distribution challenges persist, Nigerians could face renewed shortages of rice, tomatoes, onions, peppers and other staple foods before year-end, increasing pressure on household budgets already strained by inflation.

The latest warning comes as food inflation remains elevated, raising concerns that another wave of supply disruptions could further increase the cost of living unless decisive action is taken to improve agricultural production, strengthen rural security and modernise the country's food distribution network.