Majority of Turkish Cypriots support a federal solutions of Cyprus settlement: CMIRS Survey

Majority of Turkish Cypriots continue to favor a resolution to the Cyprus Problem, according to a December 2025 survey conducted by the Center for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS).

The poll also reveals strong support for federal and bi-communal governance models, alongside deep-seated economic, political, and security concerns.

The face-to-face survey, carried out with 500 participants, aims to measure political trust, social trust, individual self-confidence, and perceptions of well-being among Turkish Cypriots. CMIRS conducts the study on a quarterly basis, allowing for observation of how public attitudes evolve over time and respond to current developments.

Support for a Settlement, Conditional Compromises

According to the findings, 62.2 percent of respondents said they want an agreement to resolve the Cyprus Problem. When asked about the potential terms of a settlement, 36.07 percent stated they would find it acceptable to concede territory in exchange for political equality.

The survey found that 53.31 percent of participants would consider living together again with Greek Cypriots acceptable, while a strong 79.36 percent said they would accept a bi-communal, bi-zonal federal solution.

Security Remains a Central Concern

The continuation of the current guarantor system was deemed acceptable by 68.74 percent of respondents, while 54.91 percent said they would also find the establishment of a new international security mechanism acceptable.

Uncertainty surrounding the Cyprus Problem remains a major source of anxiety. A striking 91.79 percent of respondents described the ongoing uncertainty as worrying, while 88.38 percent said the suspension or failure of peace negotiations was a cause for concern. In addition, 70.35 percent expressed unease about Turkey’s growing influence in northern Cyprus, and 84.37 percent said they were concerned about the positions adopted by international actors.

Federal Solution Supported, Yet Viewed with Caution

While 79.36 percent said they would find a federal solution acceptable, 52.71 percent simultaneously described such a model as worrying. By comparison, 44.08 percent said a two-state solution would be a cause for concern.

An overwhelming 81.17 percent found the prospect of the status quo continuing unchanged for many years to be worrying, while 87.17 percent expressed concern about the possibility of increased isolation and restrictions in the future.

Economic anxieties were also pronounced. Some 84.38 percent said the Cyprus Problem slows economic development, 77.76 percent feared a renewed tension or conflict on the island, and 73.95 percent expressed concern over energy and military developments in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Energy and Security Deals Raise Alarm

Recent energy and security agreements signed by the Greek Cypriot administration were viewed as a source of concern by 74.95 percent of respondents, further highlighting the sensitivity surrounding regional developments.

A significant portion of participants identified the Cyprus Problem as the root cause of economic uncertainty, international isolation, political instability, and systemic unlawfulness. The lack of a settlement was directly associated with weak investment, restrictions on international trade, young people planning their futures abroad, corruption, and governance problems.

Overall, the CMIRS survey indicates that Turkish Cypriots continue to support a negotiated solution to the Cyprus Problem. However, it also underscores the high levels of economic, political, and security anxiety within society, revealing how deeply the unresolved issue affects daily life and long-term future planning.