Trump aid cuts could cause 14 million deaths by 2030, study warns

Cuts to US foreign humanitarian aid could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, according to research published in The Lancet medical journal.

The study found that one-third of those at risk of premature death would be children, with projections indicating over 4.5 million deaths among children under five, equivalent to approximately 700,000 child deaths annually.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in March that President Trump’s administration had cancelled over 80% of programmes at the US Agency for International Development (USAID), representing an 83 per cent reduction in funding.

“For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” said Davide Rasella, co-author of the Lancet report and researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.

The funding cuts “risk abruptly halting – and even reversing – two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations,” Rasella added.

Researchers analysed data from 133 nations and estimated that USAID funding prevented 91 million deaths in developing countries between 2001 and 2021. Using modelling based on the announced 83 per cent funding reduction, they projected the potential impact on death rates through 2030.

The findings emerge as dozens of world leaders meet in Seville, Spain, this week for the largest UN-led aid conference in a decade.

The Trump administration has targeted USAID as part of cost-cutting initiatives and accused the agency of supporting liberal projects. The United States operates as the world’s largest humanitarian aid provider, working in more than 60 countries primarily through contractors.

Rubio said approximately 1,000 programmes would remain and be administered “more effectively” under the State Department in consultation with Congress.

A Boston University study found that an estimated 300,000 people, including over 200,000 children, have died globally following the cuts in USAID.

The abrupt halt in aid, initiated in January 2025 under the Trump administration resulted in the suspension of over 80% of USAID’s $42 billion budget. This suspension affected critical programmes addressing HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, malnutrition, and access to clean water.

The cuts have also led to the closure of numerous clinics, particularly in Africa, severely impacting access to family planning services and treatments for infectious diseases.