Sea level rise will cause ‘catastrophic inland migration’, scientists warn

Sea level rise will become “unmanageable” even if global heating is limited to the international target of 1.5C, potentially forcing “catastrophic inland migration”, according to new research published in Communications Earth and Environment.

The study found that even under the current global heating level of 1.2C, sea levels would continue to rise at rates that could become almost unmanageable before the end of this century.

Scientists predict that if emissions were rapidly reduced to meet the 1.5C target, sea levels would still rise by 1cm annually by 2100, exceeding the speed at which nations could construct coastal defences.

“What we mean by safe limit is one which allows some level of adaptation, rather than catastrophic inland migration and forced migration,” said Professor Jonathan Bamber of the University of Bristol, one of the study’s authors.

The research indicates that the world is currently on track for 2.5C-2.9C of warming, which scientists say would almost certainly trigger the collapse of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets, eventually leading to 12 metres of sea level rise.

About 230 million people currently live one metre above sea level, with one billion living 10 metres above. The researchers warned that even a 20cm rise by 2050 would cause annual flood damages of at least $1 trillion across the world’s 136 largest coastal cities.

Professor Chris Stokes of Durham University, the study’s lead author, said: “We’re starting to see some of the worst-case scenarios play out almost in front of us.”

The researchers emphasised that every fraction of a degree of global heating avoided would slow sea level rise and provide more time for adaptation, though they concluded that at least 1-2 metres of sea level rise is now inevitable.

Carlos Fuller, Belize’s longtime climate negotiator, said: “Findings such as these only sharpen the need to remain within the 1.5C Paris agreement limit, or as close as possible.”

(Source: The Guardian)